The future demands bold solutions. Can climate economics guide us? And is the future we model the future we want? This was the departure point during our panel discussion on April 10, 2024, at Lund City Hall. Around 65 gathered to listen to our four panelists discussing the climate economic model’s effectiveness, limitations, and how they can be used responsibly. The discussion allied to earlier debate about the risks and usefulness of models, but also left room for further reflection and continued curiosity about the questions.
Background
Climate economics is devoted to thinking about the costs of climate change and how to best limit its impact. The model’s climate economists develop, and use, are in great demand as mitigation and adaptation becomes increasingly crucial policy goals. They are also deeply integrated into climate science by providing climate scientists with scenarios that spell out what level of greenhouse gas emissions we can expect under different assumptions.
The modelers themselves will often think of their models as tools for exploring interactions between systems, policy choices, and priorities—a humble and in many ways severely limited instrument that can aid us in thinking about what is important, what we can live without, and what needs to be preserved. Those critical of the model’s argue that the models in practice function as veils that hide the view of crucial ethical considerations and invert the relationship between facts and value judgments.
In this panel discussion, the audience met academics with different backgrounds, discussing economists’ perspectives on the future and how it can be helpful or not in the context of climate change. Also, if there are ways of improving the models or using them more responsibly, on whom that responsibility lies, and what the alternatives are.
Key takeaways
The conversation brought in various perspectives on the challenges and opportunities of using integrated assessment models. Several key insights emerged.
- Dominic Lenzi raised that biodiversity needs crucial consideration and is often overlooked in current models. Only focusing on how humans affect and are affected by climate change raises a lot of ethical questions about biodiversity and other lives on planet Earth.
- Another key takeaway was the epistemic challenges, and if the models represent what we want them to represent. Such as the challenges of capturing large-scale societal changes like the pandemic. However, it was highlighted that the models have improved tremendously and are today more fine-tuned, Lena Neij emphasized that in the 90s when her research took off, it was a lot of guesswork.
- Further, the reliance on GDP as a measure of well-being in the models was questioned, as there has been a shift in the broader field of economics from using GDP as the sole measure of well-being.
- The discussion also turned to the challenges of model complexity. As the models are becoming so complex, the modelers can only focus on developing and maintaining the models, which is so time-consuming that the modelers struggle to also take inputs from other disciplines.
Conclusion
The famous quote from George Box “All models are wrong, some are useful” brought up by Henrik Thorén in the introduction, encapsulates the ongoing dialogue surrounding climate economic models and their role in shaping policy and decision making.
The discussion of risks, values, and uncertainties in climate economic models will continue at our next event, the stakeholder workshop held 22nd of April. However, the focus will be on uncertainties in the decision-making process.
The panelists
Professor Lena Neij, from the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University.
Assoc. Prof. Dominic Lenzi, from the University of Twente, Netherlands.
Assoc Prof. Wim Carton, Sustainability researcher at LUCSUS, Lund University.
Dr. Lisette van Beek, from the Urban Future Studio at the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University.
The moderator for the discussion was Henrik Thorén, from the department of Philosophy at Lund university.
The event was a part of Lund Sustainability Week, where over 70 sustainability events were happening all over Lund.
